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Commodities, Financials and FOREX Special Situations for the week of August 31 2015

The latest report has been issued. [click to continue…]

Commodities, Financials and FOREX Special Situations for the week of August 24 2015

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The Kelly Formula (or Kelly Criterion)

There are bold traders that are risking 10% of their  capital in a single trade (that is insane) and others that put a single digit percent of their account on a single trade and a fraction of that is their risk. With those both extreme situations in mind, the question that one may ask is which is the right amount to risk in each single bet to maximise the profit. [click to continue…]

Special Situations Report for the Week of August 17

The latest report is ready for download. [click to continue…]

Special Situations Report for the week of July 27

The latest report is ready for download. [click to continue…]

EURAUD: A Long Term bottom Could be In

Potential Head and Shoulder in the making. Target would be 1.75.

Looking for a sustained  move above 1.5243 to find a spot to build a long position. [click to continue…]

$USDCZK – Topping?

Back in March the long term upper target for this pair was almost reached.

Since then, a complex formation (possibly a reversal Head and Shoulder top) is developing. [click to continue…]

Citigroup: ready for new highs? $c #c

Stocks of Citigroup may be ready to initiate a prolonged move above $60. [click to continue…]

Wheat, Corn and Soybeans on fire (well, not literally) $ZW_F $ZS_F $ZC_F

There are good chances that Grains have bottomed. [click to continue…]

$AUDUSD #AUDUSD making new lows

While completing a 1-month consolidation, the Aussie closed the week making 5+-year lows. [click to continue…]

#AUDUSD $AUDUSD Sideway consolidation may be near to an end

With the long term Head and Shoulders still in play, chances favour a downside resolution of the current short-term consolidation in AUDUSD. [click to continue…]

Global Equity Indices $CAC, $DAX, $SPMIB, $FTSE, $ES_F, $NQ_F

The weakness that we spotted last week in the CAC and DAX was bought and both setups ended up being big bear traps. [click to continue…]

Precious metal in focus: Silver and Palladium $SI_F $PL_F #silver

Things are not shaping up well for the precious metal complex. Not for bulls, at least. [click to continue…]

A breakout in Wheat and similarities between ZW_F and CT_F charts

With Friday’s close CBT Wheat completed a bottom formation that should launch a move to retest December 2014 highs. [click to continue…]

$EURGBP #EURGBP moving toward 0.6668

From both long and short term charts looks like that the EURGBP is setting up for (at least) another leg down. [click to continue…]

Cocoa gets closer to its upside target #CC $CC_F

Cocoa has been a perfect example of breakout with the trade never close in the red since the Failed Head and Shoulders pattern was completed back in May. [click to continue…]

$USDSEK Could be ready to reverse Lower

The cross rate has formed a nearly perfect reversal 4-month Head and Shoulder. [click to continue…]

US Equity Indexes: New Highs Head? $ES_F $NQ_F $TF_F $YM_F

With the exception of Uncle Russ, all major US indexes are still trading within multi-week consolidations. [click to continue…]

$FTSE Trying to bounce? #FTSE

FTSE is showing a constructive long term setup, but a short term troublesome behavior. [click to continue…]

Inverse Cup and Handle setup in $DAX

In the $DAX we do have a very similar setup to the one formed in the $CAC (see previous post) but here is missing the right shoulder. [click to continue…]

CAC Index – Ongoing Reversal

The CAC Index completed a 3 month reversal that should lead to a retest of December’s highs. [click to continue…]

A Potential 21 week Head and Shoulder in #USDCZK $USDCZK #FOREX

The long-term Symmetrical Triangle in play in the USD-CZK rate was completed in mid-2014. [click to continue…]

$USD JPY – Develop hypothesis to test, rather than make forecasts #FOREX #USDJPY

The long-term trend in the USDJPY pair remains bullish, with the rate trading above the 5-month Ascending Triangle that was completed by May breakout. [click to continue…]

$USDZAR Closes the week in the red, but the long term trend remains up #USDZAR #FOREX

As visible in the monthly chart, the bear market in the South African Rand continues to unfold in an orderly fashion. [click to continue…]

$USDMXN playing the hat dance #USDMXN #FOREX

I like the analogy between the Symmetrical Triangle in USDMXN and the one in USDZAR (discussed here). [click to continue…]