In this issue I want to share some monthly charts of those markets where we could see some meaningful moves in 2016. This collection doesn’t want to forecast what will happen, but rather provide a framework to “read” the price that could develop in those markets.
If the pair is able to break the 115.570 level – the neckline of a multi-month Head and Shoulder –
the USDJPY crossrate could be setting up for a major reversal: this setup could trigger a swing down to 2013 highs and mark the end of the 4 year decline of the Yen against the Dollar.
Otherwise look for a break above 2015 highs to bring this pair above 134.
The long term trend in the US is up and eventually is far from over.
Look for a break above 101 for a confirmation that a new short term up leg is started. Above current levels, there are several unmet targets for the USD Dollar. The higher is above 115.
The buck at 115 would have major implications for several other FX and commodity markets.
Almost specular to the dollar. When/if the long term trendline on which the EURUSD rate is sitting gets broken we could see some accelerated down move. As a general rule, the longer the consolidation, the stronger the resulting trend.
Based on the long term pattern, I’m expecting higher USDBRL head.
A long term bottom in USDCHF could be in place if the rate closes decisively above 1.3164.
Despite a short term frustrating price action, the long term trend in USDMXN (downtrend in the Peso) remain in places. New highs would trigger a measured move target at 18.608.
Sugar#11 can shows its hand in early 2016. All the preconditions for a medium/long term bottom in Sugar could be in. The price needs to confirm.
The trend is down on all timeframes. I do expect to do not see any up trend to develop in Crude Oil before the second trimester of 2016.
Two patterns (still developing) could launch a strong bull market in Cocoa in 2016.
Based on the Cup and Handle in play, the uptrend in this rate has still a long way to go.
A reversal in the making?
A potential Flag in the monthly chart could mark the middle of the rally in USDSEK – a market that looks ready to rally up to 2000 highs.
5 Yr T-NOTES & EURODOLLAR
Soon or later there will be a big long-term speculative opportunity in shorting Bonds and Eurodollars. The two patterns shown below could launch a new downtrend.