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Prop Trading Futures

Commodities, Financials and FOREX Special Situations – Nov 24, 2014

In this issue:

  • Commodities: GC, SI, ZC, ZW
  • Financials: GE
  • Currencies: DX, AUD/USD, USD/SGD, USD/CAD, USD/MXN, AUD-JPY, GBP/CAD, EUR/NZD, EUR/GBP, EUR/AUD.

COMMODITIES

GC (Gold)

There are two ways to see the long term action in Gold. The first is a Symmetrical Triangle, the second is a Descending Triangle. Both of them point to the metal trading below 1000$.

The second one has been invalidated by last week price action (unless Gold surprises everybody and falls hard from here).

SI (Silver)

Silver action remains extremely weak, but must be seen in the context of what Gold is doing. I personally do not trade SI, but still track to gain a better edge on the precious metal complex.

ZC and ZW (Corn and Wheat)

Mixed signals here with Wheat being the stronger of the two. Last week there were signs of a possible breakout, but there was no follow up of strength.

FINANCIALS

December 2015 GE (Eurodollar)

Despite all the talks about interest rates having bottomed, I see enough strength in the Notes and Eurodollar to believe that October highs are going to be retested.

FOREX

DX (Dollar Index)

The weekly and daily action in the Dollar Index remains very bullish.

AUD/USD

The weekly chart suggests that a 65-month Head and Shoulder may be developing. Right now we are not quite there yet and there is no reason to get excited about a 30% down move in the AUD developing anytime soon.

USD/SGD

The weekly is shows a mildly bullish action. Even if the Symmetrical Triangle is in Play, the pair is still trading within the price range of a multi year consolidation.

USD/CAD

On the intermediate time frame, the market is trending higher toward the measured target at 1.1745.

USD/MXN

As discussed in the previous report, in this pair currently there are three patterns that we are looking at: two long-medium term setups developing and one short pattern already in play.

AUD-JPY

The Channel breakout continues to play well with the short term action that support the intermediate outlook for this pair. Above the target remains 107.065.

GBP/CAD

Here we have a topping formation that can get resolved in an Inverse Cup and Handle setup.

EUR/NZD

Possible 157+ week Symmetrical Triangle is forming here in the weekly chart.

EUR/GBP

This pair is flirting with a major support level. I expect it to hold and the pair to remain stuck within the long term trading range. But if the rate reverses lower, expect 2007 lows to be tested sometime next year.

EUR/AUD

A very interesting setup may be forming here in the weekly chart.

The daily chart also shows that something is ready to happen in this market in the very short term.