GC – Gold
In our opinion this market hasn’t capitulated or found aggressive buyers so far. The outlook remains the one described in the previous report: we are expecting the downtrend to resume, but eventually after a retest of the $1230-1235 area. This week we got quite close, hitting 1.223.3 on intraday basis.
TF – Russell 2000 mini
As expected, last week we saw some weakness in US Indexes, but overall market breadth quickly recovered. Next week we could eventually see the market close above $1220. That would be a buy signal.
TW – MSCI Taiwan
The TW futures contract may be forming a bullish continuation Head and Shoulder setup. The target of this developing formation is at $384.1.
FXI – IShares FTSE China Index Fund
Overall a decent setup with a target at $52.92. In the past week volume come back into the market and the market closed just above 2014 highs.
The weekly chart shows a potential Compound Fulcrum. The target of this formation is at 1.4463. The daily chart provides a decent trading setup to build a long position.
In these past weeks we saw a very strong dollar that moved without hesitation to 9 years highs and then beyond. OI is increasing with the rally.
There is still an unfilled (measuring) gap at 90.650 – 90.800 that is a line sand. If the market remains above this level a strong continuation of current rally shall be expected. The minimum target above is 101.
USD/SGD has completed most of the move to its measured move target (at 1.3558).
This market is trading in the lower side of a multi-year up channel. Recently completed a small Symmetrical Triangle that provided a good spot to get long.
We are long.
NZD/JPY looks ready for a parabolic move…or a reversal. We will be looking to get long above December’s highs.
This past week USD-MXN lost its momentum just shy of its medium term target is at 15.022. The long term target remains at 17.000.
This market should move much lower, possibly down to 0.545, but a short term bounce could be seen from these levels. Last week we may just have seen the beginning. I’m expecting a bit of further strength.
There was no follow-through of the Head and Shoulder failure pattern that was pointing to 1.6410. This market goes out of our radar for few weeks.
Based on the price action of DX (Dollar Index) and the gap in EUR-USD, the European currency may fall hard from this level.
EURNZD completed a continuation Head and Shoulder that could launch another leg down in this market.