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Prop Trading Futures

Commodities, Financials and FOREX Special Situations for the week of January 12, 2015


COMMODITIES


 GC – Gold

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In our opinion this market hasn’t capitulated or found aggressive buyers so far. The outlook remains the one described in the previous report: we are expecting the downtrend to resume, but eventually after a retest of the $1230-1235 area. This week we got quite close, hitting 1.223.3 on intraday basis.

 


FINANCIALS


TF – Russell 2000 mini

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As expected, last week we saw some weakness in US Indexes, but overall market breadth quickly recovered. Next week we could eventually see the market close above $1220. That would be a buy signal.

TW – MSCI Taiwan

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The TW futures contract may be forming a bullish continuation Head and Shoulder setup. The target of this developing formation is at $384.1.

FXI – IShares FTSE China Index Fund

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Overall a decent setup with a target at $52.92. In the past week volume come back into the market and the market closed just above 2014 highs.


CURRENCIES


GBP/EUR

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The weekly chart shows a potential Compound Fulcrum. The target of this formation is at 1.4463. The daily chart provides a decent trading setup to build a long position.

DX

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In these past weeks we saw a very strong dollar that moved without hesitation to 9 years highs and then beyond. OI is increasing with the rally.

There is still an unfilled (measuring) gap at 90.650 – 90.800 that is a line sand. If the market remains above this level a strong continuation of current rally shall be expected. The minimum target above is 101.

USD/SGD

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USD/SGD has completed most of the move to its measured move target (at 1.3558).

NZD/CAD

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This market is trading in the lower side of a multi-year up channel. Recently completed a small Symmetrical Triangle that provided a good spot to get long.

We are long.

NZD/JPY

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NZD/JPY looks ready for a parabolic move…or a reversal. We will be looking to get long above December’s highs.

USD/MXN

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This past week USD-MXN lost its momentum just shy of its medium term target is at 15.022. The long term target remains at 17.000.

AUD/USD

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This market should move much lower, possibly down to 0.545, but a short term bounce could be seen from these levels. Last week we may just have seen the beginning. I’m expecting a bit of further strength.

EUR/AUD

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There was no follow-through of the Head and Shoulder failure pattern that was pointing to 1.6410. This market goes out of our radar for few weeks.

EUR/USD

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Based on the price action of DX (Dollar Index) and the gap in EUR-USD, the European currency may fall hard from this level.

 EUR/NZD

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EURNZD completed a continuation Head and Shoulder that could launch another leg down in this market.